Tuesday, September 25, 2007

The Hypnotised Never Lie

The ultimate song about the power (and futility) of revolution. One of the best.

***

We'll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgement of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again

The change, it had to come
We knew it all along
We were liberated from the foe, that's all
And the world looks just the same
And history ain't changed
'Cause the banners, they're all flown in the next war

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
No, no!

I'll move myself and my family aside
If we happen to be left half alive
I'll get all my papers and smile at the sky
For I know that the hypnotised never lie

There's nothing in the street
Looks any different to me
And the slogans are replaced, by-the-bye
And the parting on the left
Is now the parting on the right
And the beards have all grown longer overnight

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again

Meet the new boss
Same as the old boss

The Who - Won't Get Fooled Again

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Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Four's A Crowd

We all have voices in our heads. And I think I have four of them.

In my head, every thought is a conversation or an argument between two distinct voices. What they say may depend on the context, but they argue two sides to the case as it may be. Sometimes they work together, and sometimes apart, but each voice tries to pick holes in the other one’s arguments.

Their stance also depends on the context, and on how dysfunctional I am feeling at the time. That is to say, it is not always possible to classify one voice as being of one type and the other of another type and being so always. It could be that they are both cautious, or both rash and reckless, or any other sort in the middle, but they are never so to the same degree. There is a gap between their views, and this gap becomes the bone of contention. So for example, if I'm lying in bed and feeling lazy, then one voice will suggest that I order dinner. But the other will say, "you're just being lazy, get up and make yourself something to eat." And then an argument will ensue.

But since only one action can result from these thoughts, it is essential that there is a compromise. To arrive at a compromise, both voices appeal to a mediator, which is the third voice in my head. The role of the mediator, from what I can understand, is to listen to both sides and finally pick one as being more appropriate, or closer to the truth. The mediator also seems to make suggestions on where the flaws are in an argument and which voice is more convincing, and so to some extent guides its flow.

The third voice is definitely distinct from the other two. This I proved to myself when I found myself following a course of action that neither of the two main voices prescribed. That is, since the third voice is capable of independent thought, it must classify as a wholly separate voice. I have gone to bed hungry on occasion, fed up with having to decide between ordering and getting up.

For a long time, I thought I was inhabited by just these three. This was fine; after all, Freud had said this a long time ago (remember the id, ego and superego?) But then one day, in a particularly inebriated moment, I discovered a fourth, and things haven’t been the same since.

It is somewhat hard to classify the fourth voice, but I would say that it plays the role of an archive and commentator – a sort of fourth estate if you like. That is, it places the whole argument and subsequent action in context. It decides whether justice has been done; whether the action followed was a fair result of the two main arguments; whether there was a bias; whether the action taken was consistent and replicable, and so on. Had I ordered food earlier that week? Was ordering (or getting up, or even going hungry) consistent with previous behaviour? The fourth voice decides.

The third voice rules only on the basis of information presented to it at the time, abstracted away from everything else, but it is the fourth voice that places the verdict into context. Moreover, the ability of the fourth voice to contradict the third makes it an independent voice as well. This was admittedly harder to verify, but I think I’ve done it now.

So, anyway, I have four distinct voices in my head. I’ve known this for some time now. But last night a disturbing question arose: if I have four voices in my head, do ‘I’, being aware of this, become a distinct fifth voice, or am ‘I’ merely a manifestation of one or more of the others?

I asked some people this question. P’s answer was that it depends on whether any of the voices is aware of itself or only of the others, or whether there is a completely independent realisation of four voices. I asked A, and she said that I am just an observer. I may not be an objective one, but I am one that is willing to be ‘entertained by these voices’. Depending on circumstance, I may choose to relate or associate with one voice or the other, but essentially I do not exist independently from them.

Okay, so where does this leave us? Suppose for a moment that there is an independent fifth voice that recognises all others. If this is true, then either the fifth voice is self-aware, or there is some other voice that is aware of it. But then who recognises that one? This line of thinking leads us iterating indefinitely backwards, and there is no end to it.

This is an argument very similar to the one here, if you remember. There I supposed that quite as the term infinity was invented as an escape from endlessly continuing numbers, the term God too was invented as an escape from the endless backward chain of creation. In other words, both were ways to escape having to answer yet another identical question of what came after (or before). Now I don’t suppose I have an infinity of voices in my head, so this cannot possibly be it. Something has to just ‘be’.

One escape to this is the one that P suggests. He says that there may be only four voices, but none of which is self-aware. Each voice perceives only three others. Upshot: the composite of the four is what I call me.

This is a remarkable conclusion, if it is true, because if it is then it offers a possible solution to the backward chain of creation as well. As you go backwards down the ‘who created whom’ line, you will come down to some pieces of matter (or energy) that are not self-aware but are aware of each other, and depend on each other’s awareness to exist.

The lack of self-awareness to each constituent is crucial. If it is self-aware, then it must justify its existence to itself, and then you merely go one step back in the chain to what created it. On the other hand if it is not aware of itself, then it bypasses the issue, because the question of creation does not arise. But then if it is not aware of itself, then it follows that either it does not exist, or that something else must be aware of it. Remember the conundrum about whether a tree falling in a deserted forest makes a sound or not? This is analogous to saying that the sound needs a receiver in order to exist.

So if there is a set of all mutually aware bits that are not self-aware, then these must form the constituents of everything else. None of these pieces can ‘exist’ without each other; they exist only because others recognise that they exist.

If extended properly, this provides an answer to the creation debate, albeit an escapist one. Nothing came from anywhere, but something exists only because there is something else to recognise it. That other thing doesn’t independently exist either, but exists only because it is in turn recognised to exist. Nothing truly exists, then. In fact, the concept of existence itself might be misplaced.

Anyway, back to my head. If it is the interplay of four voices that gives rise to a composite identity, is it possible to think of each voice as being a frequency? And if they are all frequencies, then is this not analogous to an orchestra, with many different instruments playing at the same time, with each player only aware of all the others, but together producing a composite sound? Or if you prefer light, then is this not like many different individual colours coming together to form one composite hue?

This composite might then be played back to the constituents, enveloping them. It is what is exhibited on the exterior, with its precise shade varying according to the intensity of the constituent elements. This is what I think A was trying to say, in that the final shade is formed as a combination the others, and may be closer in shade to one or the other depending on the context.

And if this is true, and they are all frequencies of a sort, then theoretically it should be possible to transmit this information, shouldn’t it? It should also be possible to decompose the transmitted frequency (or colour) into its constituents. Perhaps we do it without thinking.

Our uniqueness as individuals depends on the variety of colours we can produce from our constituents. Our communication skills depend on how we transmit these colours. And our ability to relate to each other depends on whether we can interpret what we receive. If one of us cannot perceive the colours that the other transmits, or we cannot decompose them, then perhaps that is why, like non-superimposing sets, we may never fully understand each other.

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Thursday, September 06, 2007

Fun And Games

So we won yesterday. Even though I’m usually an optimist when it comes to Indian cricket, even I didn’t give us much of a chance when we had a hundred runs to get off seventy-something balls. We were helped a bit by England’s hopelessness in the field, and by quite a bit of luck in terms of fortunate boundaries to third-man, but played very well too. After all, some of England’s wins in the series have been somewhat fortuitous too, haven’t they? Turn and turn about.

A few things came to mind though, while I was watching the game.

***

Yesterday was the first time that I registered the full import of Tendulkar’s age. He has suffered from cramps mid-innings before, but yesterday was the worst condition I have ever seen him in.

His post-match interview was especially telling. He looked wan, like a man who has just come out of deep pain. He mentioned how difficult it was getting for him to get up and ready for the next game, and he said it genuinely, and not as a complaint. To hear it from his mouth, in plain words, finally brought the truth crashing home. No more you're-still-a-wonderkid brainwashing.

But I don’t think his tone registered with the brainless Harsha Bhogle. Not understanding the seriousness of Sachin’s mood, Bhogle tried to laugh it off with his usual ill-timed jokes. Something along the lines of “that’s odd, when you’re still 16,” or something like that. Wrong time, wrong place, wrong mood. Tendulkar laughed resignedly, and tried to remind Bhogle that he was not, in fact, 16 anymore, and was 34, although he still enjoyed the game, but Bhogle didn't catch on. It took Ian Chappell’s good sense to bring the subject back to what they were talking about. He gave Sachin a chance to explain what he meant by increased recovery time, giving him a chance to make his view clear, because it really looked like he wanted to talk about it, and let people know the truth.

He’s been around for nearly 20 years. Although I have been guilty of it in the past, I think yesterday provided enough of a shock to the system for it to register deeply. He is going to retire at some point this year most likely, and we should make the most of it while he remains. Let him play as a 34-year-old, and not wish back the Sachin from a decade ago. I at least am going to enjoy what’s left of his career without living in the past. What was, was. Never mind that now. You’ve been born again, Sachin, and welcome back.

***

I also figured out yesterday just what it is about commentary nowadays that irritates me so. It came to the point where I switched off the volume and was watching in silence. I hope Tata Sky or whoever comes up with an option where you can turn off the commentary while preserving the ambient noise, especially the crowd. I can’t take this commentary anymore.

Commentary involves telling the viewer what is happening on the field, and providing analysis. This isn’t that, except intermittently. What Shastri, Gavaskar and Bhogle do instead is talk to the players as though they can hear. All we get to hear is advice on what they must do next. All the time.

“What India needs now is a couple of good overs.”
“Run the singles, pick up the odd two, block the good balls, find a boundary now and then.”
“All Zaheer must do is keep a tight line on off-stump.”
“India must score as much as they can in the third powerplay against the part-time bowlers.”

And they get very specific about it. And then they get insistent. And then, they get disappointed when things don’t go quite like they insist they should. I’m sick and tired of it now. I don’t want commentary that is an endless barrage of advice. The players can’t hear you. I can. I know what they should do. I know that if the required rate is up to 10 an over they must score quickly. I know that when a wicket falls the pressure mounts. I know that a new batsman must try and run singles and rotate the strike. I don’t need you to tell me this, and I especially don’t need you to pretend that you’re telling the player this and I’m somehow intruding. And I don't want you to hammer it in ceaselessly, ball after ball, over after over. Keep quiet instead.

All I want from you is to use your expert knowledge to tell me things I would not have spotted, not to state the bleeding obvious all the time. Tell me what’s happening in the game, don’t constantly tell me what they should or should not be doing.

I switched to the Hindi commentary for a while, but there they were about to start weeping because Dhoni wasn’t able to take a single despite being expressly shouted at by Arun Lal to do so, so then I just turned the volume off.

Reform, please. Remove these grandfathers.

***

Somebody said to me today that some matches in this series have been fixed. Doubtful. I know that large sums of money are involved in betting, but the people who probably stand the most to gain from fixing these matches would not be happy with the way things have gone, and so are not likely to have influenced the result. Perhaps people stand to gain with the series going down to the last game, having placed bets accordingly, maybe, but there are others who would gain more from fixing the game, possibly in another direction.

The Twenty20 World Cup organisers stand more to gain from the series being a flop. If India lost 5-2 or 6-1, it would raise the attractiveness of the shorter format. After all, they’re pitching Twenty20 as a substitute for, and not a complement to, the 50-over version. What better way is there of promoting your version than by watching the rival version lose its appeal entirely? If I were a sponsor of this upcoming World Cup, I would have been quite keen to ensure that India lost badly, further disillusioning viewers with the 50-over game. That it has gone to the wire means that even if we lose on Saturday we will have saved some prestige. The 50-over version will not have lost all its fans.

***

Change tack.

I have studied economics for about five years now, and have always preferred microeconomics over macro. Macro has somehow always seemed vague, unspecified, full of hand-waving, lacking structure, and being plain uninteresting. Micro on the other hand was where I always found the fun bits. Over my five years of economics, therefore, I must have done only a handful of macro courses, devoting most of the rest to micro.

It is ironic, then, that the work I do now is entirely related to macroeconomics. It means that I don’t know anything at all. The good thing, I suppose, is that I don’t come in with any pre-conceived ideas, which is important in the kind of opinionated environment I’m in, and the opinionated subject that economics is in general. Everything I know about macro now I have learnt here, and from a practical side too. No theory baggage. It’s pretty interesting, as it turns out, when it is outside the charts and models of textbooks.

Macro is the businessman’s economics. GDP, trade, per capita income, currency markets, credit crunches, bond yields, risk/return profiles – these are of concern to those in the business of making money, as I am now. But micro is where it’s at, still. Micro is about people, preferences, interactions, motivations, strategy – things I find so much more interesting. It is the human side of economics, and to study it you need to study human beings.

I think I’ll go back to it soon. Give me a few months in here and I’ll be out.

***

There are changes afoot. Interesting times ahead.

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